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# Chicken Scratch Analysis from the Quebec election - The Loop
- URL: https://www.onthetrail.info/latest/chicken-scratch-analysis-from-the-quebec-election/
- Published: 2026-10-06T12:00:21.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-09T14:40:04.000Z
- Description: PQ wins a minority government. Will anybody work with them?
- Author: Isaac Peltz
- Tags: The Loop

PQ wins. We all knew that PQ would win. We didn’t know by how much. There are many things to take away from this election. Let’s start with the obvious.

### **UNPRECEDENTED TRAVESTY OF DEMOCRATIC REPRESENTATION**

You know, I’ve written a lot about proportional representation. [Go look at my article over on the Walrus ](https://thewalrus.ca/liberals-electoral-reform/?ref=onthetrail.info)if you want to see how the country, including Quebec, would look with a real electoral system that represents how people vote as opposed to weird political games in hyper-local ridings. 

> Last night, for the first time in Quebec’s history, a government won with less than 30 percent of the vote. And it’s not even just. It’s a brutal misrepresentation of the way people voted. The Parti Quebecois won 46 percent of seats with 28 percent of votes. But let’s break it down a little further. 68 percent of eligible voters went to the polls. This means that 19 percent of voters elected a minority government with 46 percent of seats. 

> The Liberals received a major advantage as well. With 24 percent of the vote, they received 31 percent of seats. Meanwhile, the CAQ received more votes than Quebec Solidaire but walked away with zero seats. QS and Parti Conservateur received major seat penalties as well. QS got 12 percent of the vote, but only 7 percent of seats. PCQ won 21 percent of the vote, but only 14 percent of seats. 

Once again the first-past-the-post system has failed Quebecois.es, it has failed Canadians, and it will continue to fail people across Quebec and Canada unless it is changed. PQ has promised to change it, but this is oft promised, never delivered. It would radically improve our lives and force real governance to occur in the province. Go read my Walrus article.

[This national assembly will be wild. Support our work to hold them accountable](#/portal/signup)

### **PQ WINS BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH**

The biggest albatross on the PQ is their leader. They will have to govern with an incredibly deft hand, and manage to create exceptional partnerships with other parties if they want to get things passed. The problem with Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon is that he gets angry quickly, and focuses on issues that no one is particularly interested in. I’m not speaking about the referendum, that’s a real question in Quebec. Right now Quebecers aren’t interested, but it wasn’t so long ago that more than 40 percent of Quebecers were interested in sovereignty. Trump seems to have quieted that down. I’m talking about things like PSPPs promise to get rid of the lieutenant governor in the last week. I’m talking about his lashing out at the media. This will do nothing good for the party, and could lead to his popularity falling off in the short to medium term.

And despite winning, they didn’t win the majority. This will pose them serious problems. There are no other parties who want to support them. The Liberals might help them on certain laws, but the Liberals are suddenly in an incredible position for the next election. Without the Coalition Avenir Québec taking away more than ten percent of the vote, they stand to win big next time. Milliard started the campaign weak, but he walked away strong at the end. In 2012 when the PQ won, they got by with a minority. When they went into election in 2014, they had a lead in the polls and were certain that they would win. Suddenly, the Liberal Party was just behind them. The PQ desperately needs to keep a lid on their leader. The way he speaks replicates a false intellectual cadence. His anger is uncontrollable sometimes. He has no *chill* and this could hurt his likeability fast. Plus, Quebecers already don’t like him. Only 19 percent of Quebecers voted for him. Things are not looking good long term.

The other question is how will they govern if they are able to hold some sort of stability? That’s not clear to any of us. The PQ is a complicated party to understand. They have certain moments where they’re clearly a left-leaning party– they don’t like private health care or education. But then they want to cut so heavily in public workers that they sound like a conservative party. When PSPP starts speaking about Muslims, wow, it’s not laïcité anymore. Suddenly it becomes racism. PSPP wants to give money to Quebecers to have more kids, but they also don’t want more immigration because there are too many people… so, I mean, we all understand what’s going on right? He’s not sure that immigrants of the second generation are Quebecers, as he explained during the election. His lack of comment on trans people is worrying as well. But his complaints about “wokiesm” might indicate something.

The PQ will definitely do good things. They always do. Lucien Bouchard’s government introduced an exceptional, world-renowned system of state-supported childcare, and introduced pharmaceutical care to RAMQ. Bouchard was a conservative. At the same time, there will be bad with the PQ as well. The question, therefore, is simply which way will he swing, and when? To pass anything, they will need allies. Will they turn left and right when needed? Or will they ally with QS? Or Conservatives? They are unlikely to collaborate much with the Liberals. We don’t have answers yet. As always, we hope that this government will be exceptional. We want only good things for Quebecois.es . But I doubt it will be all good, and I doubt it will be all bad. 

[Did you know we have a french newsletter as well? Sign up!](https://ventdelest.info/?ref=onthetrail.info)

### **LIBERALS LOOKING GOOD FOR THE NEXT ELECTION**

The Liberals are the secret winners. They didn’t win. But they got a huge boost in seats vs. votes. They also watched their adversaries disappear. There’s always a chance that parties can come back, but it is highly unlikely that the CAQ will ever win seats again. Without the CAQ, the Liberals have a chance at winning the next election. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Liberals, a fundraising and campaigning machine, push for another election as soon as possible. Without the *lutte à cinq partis,* they very well could crush the PQ. Imagine if that whole 13 percent of the CAQ’s vote went to the Liberals? They would have dominated the election. They also have an attractive, well-spoken leader that, although very conservative, clearly cares about people and the province. He’s the exact face that the Liberals need to get rid of the accusations that they’re corrupt. Milliard started gaining likeability at the end of the campaign as well, where PSPP started losing his appeal. The Liberals are the biggest winners of the whole night, and I’m sure they know it.

### **WILL THE CONSERVATIVES LAST?**

Meanwhile, the Conservatives might work with PSPP. They need to prove that they’re actually capable of being statesmen. They won off of a protest vote, and need to prove that they are a serious party in the National Assembly. But also, this could hurt them. If they support PQ, they might wind up convincing voters that PQ is the better option. If they support what is perceived as the left, it might be that voters will change their votes. Will the Conservatives be able to keep this support in another election? I’m not sure. It was the CAQ vote that went to them. The CAQ, particularly in their last months of governing, were not far from where the Conservatives are. During the election, Frechette was promising more private health care. That’s what the PCQ wanted. So, will the Conservatives survive the future?

I’m not convinced. 

### **QUEBEC SOLIDAIRE IS IN A GOOD POSITION FOR THE FUTURE**

QS is walking away in a strong position. They lost two seats. Not a big deal. They saved the furniture and established Ruba Ghazal as a strong contender for the future. They were always going to lose a bit in this election. They lost the legendary Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau Dubois. These aren’t easy shoes to fill. And yet they kept almost all of their seats, and they didn’t lose a single one to the PQ. The seats they lost are old Liberal bastions. Verdun was a crazy seat for QS to have at all. Now they have an amazing opportunity to hold the government truly accountable now. They hold power and can push the province further left than it otherwise would have been. And if they don’t, it’s because the PQ moves much, much further right. Either way they win.

If the PQ has to lean on them, they need to make a lot of noise that they were the ones winning great things for Quebecers. If the PQ moves right, they get to stand up and say, full throatedly, that they are the only party of the left. Right now PQ has convinced many voters that they are left, and they very well might be on certain subjects. But when push comes down to shove, identification means nothing in the face of action. The federal Liberals are considered left-of-centre on a global scale. Those of us who watch their actions know that this isn’t the case.

So, QS walks away from this in a great position. 

[Keep power accountable](#/portal/signup)

### **WHEN WILL AN ELECTION HAPPEN AGAIN**

I don’t know, but I think this Assnat will last six months. Ludvic and Gabrielle think it’s a two year deal. We will definitely be betting on this in our French podcast. I’m looking forward to serving you during this next government, and I hope you’ll consider paying for our work and supporting us as we go on. We will release our numbers on proportional representation soon. 

\-30-